Flexible operation of coal-fired power plants contributes to the intensification of the life consumption processes, which is a serious problem especially in the case of units with a long in-service time. In steam turbine rotors, the crack propagation rate and material wear caused by low-cycle fatigue increase. The aim of the research is an attempt to forecast the development of these processes and to estimate the probability of critical elements damage, such as the high-pressure and intermediate-pressure rotors. In the stress state analyses, the finite element method (FEM) is used, the Monte Carlo method and the second order reliability method (SORM) is apply to calculate the probability of failure. It is proposed to use risk analysis to plan preventive maintenance of the turbine. The optimal intervals for carrying out diagnostic tests and prophylactic repairs is determined for various operating scenarios and various failure scenarios. This enables a reduction of the costs while ensuring the safety of the turbine's operation.