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RESEARCH PAPER
Risk Assessment of Highway Engineering Construction Safety Reliability Based on Two-Dimensional Cloud Model-Bayesian Network
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1
North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, China
 
2
Central China Regional Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge CO., LTD., China
 
3
Western Regional Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group CO., LTD., China
 
4
Southeast Regional Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group CO., LTD., China
 
 
Submission date: 2025-04-09
 
 
Final revision date: 2025-06-17
 
 
Acceptance date: 2025-08-03
 
 
Online publication date: 2025-09-07
 
 
Publication date: 2025-09-07
 
 
Corresponding author
Bo Wang   

North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, China
 
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Proposing a risk assessment method combining the 2D cloud model and Bayesian network.
  • Constructing a fault tree model for risk and 2D comprehensive cloud risk model.
  • Bi-directional inference is performed by the Bayesian network.
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ABSTRACT
In response to the difficulty of quantifying the fuzziness and randomness of safety risks in highway engineering construction using traditional methods, which leads to insufficient reliability, this study proposes a risk assessment method for highway engineering construction safety reliability based on the two-dimensional cloud model and Bayesian network. An assessment system containing 4 categories and 18 indicators was constructed using the Delphi method, a fault tree model was established and transformed into a Bayesian network. Based on the risk matrix method, a two-dimensional cloud model was constructed and the comprehensive cloud of bottom events was calculated. By assessing the occurrence probability of the bottom events and the severity of their consequences, the a priori probabilities of the risk indicators were calculated. Bidirectional inference in the Bayesian network was then used to determine the probability of the top event and identify key factors.
eISSN:2956-3860
ISSN:1507-2711
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