The paper presents a method for assessing the risk of exceeding the agreed production time for a batch of products using the statistical modeling of a production system. The approach considers the structure of the technological route and statistical characteristics of operations. It accounts for both the probability of a given state, such as equipment failure or adjustment, and the distribution of time spent in that state. A production line with seven sequential operations is analyzed. Risk is defined as the probability that production time will exceed the planned order completion time. The method estimates total processing time and potential losses due to unproduced parts. The results show that batch processing time follows a distribution close to the normal law. This provides a basis for optimizing the exploitation and reliability of manufacturing systems, ensuring their efficiency and reducing downtime.