RESEARCH PAPER
Estimation of maintenance costs of a pipeline for a U-shaped hazard rate function in the imprecise setting
1
Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Newelska 6, 01-447 Warszawa, Poland Warsaw School of Information Technology, ul. Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw, Poland
2
Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Newelska 6, 01-447 Warszawa, Poland
Publication date: 2020-06-30
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2020;22(2):352–362
KEYWORDS
water distribution systemmaintenance costsconvex hazard rate functionMonte Carlo simulationsfuzzy setsshadowed sets
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we discuss imprecise settings for an evaluation of the maintenance costs of a water distribution system (WDS). Moments of failures of pipes are modelled using a newly proposed three-piece convex hazard rate function (HRF) for which number
of previous failures is taken into account, too. Both fuzzy sets and shadowed sets are used to model the impreciseness of important
parameters of this HRF and the costs of maintenance services. Contrary to more classical and widely-used approaches to cost
analysis (i.e. a constant yield or nominal value of money), a strictly stochastic process (i.e. the one-factor Vasicek model) of an
interest rate is assumed in the analysis of maintenance costs. This approach models future behaviour of the interest rate (i.e. the
future value of money) in a more realistic way. Respective algorithms together with exemplary results of numerical simulations for
two setups, which are related to fuzzy and shadowed sets, are also provided.
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