RESEARCH PAPER
A Novel Dam Safety Risk Assessment Approach Incorporating the Human Factors System and the Incentive-Variable Weight Method
1
school of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan university, China
2
Dam Safety Management Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, China
3
changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, China
Submission date: 2026-01-08
Final revision date: 2026-02-08
Acceptance date: 2026-03-11
Online publication date: 2026-03-23
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
An improved calculation method for dam failure probability that considers human factors was developed to incorporate human error parameters into engineering risk analysis in this study. Firstly, the human factors indicator system with human, technology, organization, and environment as guideline layers was constructed. The assignment of indicators was accomplished using game theory to simultaneously reflect the experts’ subjective opinions and the objective information in historical data. A key innovation was the incorporation of the incentive-variable weighting method, which enabled dynamic assignment of top-level indicators and accounted for the influence of weak factors on the failure probability, as well as dynamic calculation across multiple combinations of failing causes. Finally, a new human-driven variable-weighted dam risk dynamic assessment methodology was developed by combining the consequences of dam failure to reflect risk. The novel method has been applied to dam group examples, intuitively reflecting the risk order of different small dams.
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