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Reliability analysis of complex uncertainty multi-state system based on Bayesian network
Jun Ma 1
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School of Mechanical Engineering Dalian University of Technology No.2, Linggong Road, High-tech District, Dalian, 116024, P.R. China
Publication date: 2019-09-30
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2019;21(3):419–429
Reliability analysis of complex multi-state system has uncertainty, which is caused by complex structures, limited test samples, and insufficient reliability data. By introducing fuzzy mathematics and grey system theory into the Bayesian network, the model of the grey fuzzy Bayesian network is built, and the reliability analysis method of complex uncertainty multi-state system with the non-deterministic membership function and the interval characteristic quantity is proposed in this paper. Using the trapezoidal membership function with fuzzy support radius variable to describe the fault state of the component, it can effectively avoid the influence of human subjective factors on the selection of the membership function and solve the problem that the fault states of the system and its components are difficult to define accurately. And the conditional probability table containing interval grey numbers is constructed to effectively express the uncertain fault logic relationship between the system and its components. Moreover, a parameter planning model of the system reliability characteristic quantities is constructed, and the system reliability characteristic quantities are expressed as the form of interval values. Finally, two sets of numerical experiments are conducted and discussed, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective and a promising approach to reliability analysis for complex uncertainty multi-state systems.
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