School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No.2006, Xiyuan Ave, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611731, P.R. China
2
Center for System Reliability and Safety, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No.2006, Xiyuan Ave, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611731, P.R. China
3
Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Callinstr. 34, Hannover, 30167, Germany
Publication date: 2020-03-31
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2020;22(1):111-120
When dealing with modern complex systems, the relationship existing between components can lead to the appearance of various
dependencies between component failures, where multiple items of the system fail simultaneously in unpredictable fashions. These
probabilistic common cause failures affect greatly the performance of these critical systems. In this paper a novel methodology
is developed to quantify the importance of common cause failures when hybrid uncertainties are presented in systems. First, the
probabilistic common cause failures are modeled with Bayesian networks and are incorporated into the system exploiting the α
factor model. Then, probability-boxes (bound analysis method) are introduced to model the hybrid uncertainties and quantify the
effect of uncertainties on system reliability. Furthermore, an extended Birnbaum importance measure is defined to identify the
critical common cause failure events and coupling impact factors when uncertainties are expressed by probability-boxes. Finally,
the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through a numerical example
REFERENCES(34)
1.
Alizadeh S, Sriramula S. Impact of common cause failure on reliability performance of redundant safety related systems subject to process demand. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2018; 172: 129-150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Birnbaum ZW. On the importance of different components in a multicomponent system. In Multivariate Analysis, II, Academic Press, New York 1968: 581-592, https://doi.org/10.21236/AD067....
Dannert MM, Fau A, Fleury RMN, Broggi M. A probability-box approach on uncertain correlation lengths by stochastic finite element method. Proceeding in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics 2018; 18(1): e201800114, https://doi.org/10.1002/pamm.2....
Feng G, George-Williams H, Patelli E, Coolen FPA, Beer M. An efficient reliability analysis on complex non-repairable systems with common-cause failures. Safety and Reliability-Safe Societies in a Changing World. CRC Press 2018: 2531-2537, https://doi.org/10.1201/978135....
Ferson S, Hajagos J, Berleant D, Zhang J, Tucker WT, Ginzburg L, Oberkampf W. Dependence in Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds analysis. Sandia National Laboratories 2004.
Karanki DR, Kushwaha HS, Verma AK, Ajit S. Uncertainty analysis based on probability bounds (p‐box) approach in probabilistic safety assessment. Risk Analysis: An International Journal 2009; 29(5): 662-675, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539....
Le Duy TD, Vasseur D. A practical methodology for modeling and estimation of common cause failure parameters in multi-unit nuclear PSA model. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2018; 170: 159-174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Li H, Huang HZ, Li YF, Zhou J, Mi J. Physics of failure-based reliability prediction of turbine blades using multi-source information fusion. Applied Soft Computing 2018; 72: 624-635, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc....
Li YF, Huang HZ, Mi J, Peng W, Han X. Reliability analysis of multi-state systems with common cause failures based on Bayesian network and fuzzy probability. Annals of Operations Research 2019: 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479....
Li YF, Mi J, Liu Y, Yang YJ, Huang HZ. Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 2015; 229(6): 530-541, https://doi.org/10.1177/174800....
Li YF, Mi J, Huang HZ, Zhu SP, Xiao N. Fault tree analysis of train rear-end collision accident considering common cause failure. Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability 2013; 15(4): 403-408.
Mi J, Cheng Y, Song Y, Bai L, Chen K. Application of dynamic evidential networks in reliability analysis of complex systems with epistemic uncertainty and multiple life distributions. Annals of Operations Research 2019: 1-23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479....
Mi J, Li YF, Liu Y, Yang YJ, Huang HZ. Belief universal generating function analysis of multi-state systems under epistemic uncertainty and common cause failures. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 2015; 64(4): 1300-1309, https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.201....
Mi J, Li YF, Peng W, Yang YJ, Huang HZ. Fault tree analysis of feeding control system for computer numerical control heavy-duty horizontal lathes with multiple common cause failure groups. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science) 2016; 21(4): 504-508, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204....
Mi J, Li YF, Peng W, Huang HZ. Reliability analysis of complex multi-state system with common cause failure based on evidential networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2018; 174: 71-81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Mi J, Li YF, Yang YJ, Peng W, Huang HZ. Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2016; 152: 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
O'Connor AN. A general cause based methodology for analysis of dependent failures in system risk and reliability assessments, University of Maryland, 2013.
O'Connor AN, Mosleh A. Extending the alpha factor model for cause based treatment of common cause failure events in PRA and event assessment. Proceedings of the 12th probabilistic safety assessment & management conference (PSAM12) 2014.
Qiu S, Ming HXG, Hou Y. An evidential network-based method for common-cause failure analysis under uncertainty. In Safety and Reliablity-Safe Societies in a Changing World, Haugen et al. (eds), 2018: 2365-2372, https://doi.org/10.1201/978135....
Sakurahara T, Schumock G, Reihani S, Kee E, Mohaghegh Z. Simulation-informed probabilistic methodology for common cause failure analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2019; 185: 84-99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Song Y, Mi J, Cheng Y, Bai L, Wang X. Application of discrete‐time Bayesian network on reliability analysis of uncertain system with common cause failure. Quality and Reliability Engineering International 2019; 35(4): 1025-1045, https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.24....
Wang C, Matthies HG, Xu M, Li Y. Dual interval-and-fuzzy analysis method for temperature prediction with hybrid epistemic uncertainties via polynomial chaos expansion. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 2018; 336: 171-186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j. cma.2018.03.013.
Wang C, Xing L, Levitin G. Explicit and implicit methods for probabilistic common-cause failure analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2014; 131: 175-184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Wang C, Xing L, Levitin G. Probabilistic common cause failures in phased-mission systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2015; 144: 53-60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Wang L, Xiong C, Yang Y. A novel methodology of reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization under hybrid interval and fuzzy uncertainties. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 2018; 337: 439-457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.....
Wei P, Lu Z, Song J. Variable importance analysis: a comprehensive review. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2015; 142: 399-432, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Xie L, Lundteigen MA, Liu YL. Safety barriers against common cause failure and cascading failure: literature reviews and modeling strategies, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). IEEE) 2018: 122-127, https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2....
Zhang M, Zhang Z, Mosleh A, Chen S. Common cause failure model updating for risk monitoring in nuclear power plants based on alpha factor model. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 2017; 231(3): 209-220, https://doi.org/10.1177/174800....
Zhang X, Gao H, Huang HZ, Li YF, Mi J. Dynamic reliability modeling for system analysis under complex load. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 201;180: 345-351, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress....
Zhu P, Han J, Liu L, Lombardi F. A stochastic approach for the analysis of dynamic fault trees with spare gates under probabilistic common cause failures. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 2015; 64(3): 878-892, https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.201....
Zuo L, Xiahou T, Liu Y. Reliability assessment of systems subject to interval-valued probabilistic common cause failure by evidential networks. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 2019; 36(4): 3711-3723, https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-1....
Enhanced reliability analysis method for multistate systems with epistemic uncertainty based on evidential network Zhe Zhang, Ziwei Chen, Chao Jiang Quality and Reliability Engineering International
A framework for corrosion assessment in metallic structures, from data analysis to risk based inspection Xiaofei Cui, Xiaoxia Liang, Ujjwal Bharadwaj Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability
Reliability and importance analysis of uncertain system with common cause failures based on survival signature Jinhua Mi, Michael Beer, Yan-Feng Li, Matteo Broggi, Yuhua Cheng Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Explicit and implicit Bayesian Network-based methods for the risk assessment of systems subject to probabilistic common-cause failures Siqi Qiu, Xinguo Ming Computers in Industry
Reliability assessment for failure‐dependent and uncertain systems: A Bayesian network based on copula method and probability‐box Yufei Song, Jinhua Mi, Yuhua Cheng, Libing Bai, Kai Chen Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Confidence-Interval-Based Fuzzy Testing for the Lifetime Performance Index of Electronic Product Chun-Min Yu, Kuen-Suan Chen, Ting-Hsin Hsu Mathematics
A dependency bounds analysis method for reliability assessment of complex system with hybrid uncertainty Yufei Song, Jinhua Mi, Yuhua Cheng, Libing Bai, Kai Chen Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability assessment for systems suffering common cause failure based on Bayesian networks and proportional hazards model Yan‐Feng Li, Yang Liu, Tudi Huang, Hong‐Zhong Huang, Jinhua Mi Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Comparisons of Different Importance Measures with Hierarchical System Markov Bayesian Network Model Rentong Chen, Shaoping Wang, Chao Zhang, Yadong Zhang 2021 Global Reliability and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM-Nanjing)
Effective sensor placement based on a VIKOR method considering common cause failure in the presence of epistemic uncertainty Rong-Xing Duan, Jie-Jun He, Tao Feng, Shu-Juan Huang, Li Chen Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability
Reactive energy compensator effect on the reliability of a complex electrical system using Bayesian networks Omar Reffas, Yacine Sahraoui, Mourad Nahal, Rachida Ghoul, Salah Saad Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability
Imprecise sensitivity analysis of system reliability based on the Bayesian network and probability box He Liang, Jinhua Mi, Libing Bai, Yuhua Cheng Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability
Ultra-Reliable Communications: Basic Concepts, Challenges and Open Issues Victor Netes 2023 Systems of Signals Generating and Processing in the Field of on Board Communications
Analysis of time series importance measure of high-end equipment cellular manufacturing system Haibao LI, Shuai ZHANG, Jiangbin ZHAO Xibei Gongye Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University
Common Cause Failures in Communication Networks Victor Netes, Vladislav Sharov 2024 Systems of Signals Generating and Processing in the Field of on Board Communications
Component uncertainty importance measure in complex multi-state system considering epistemic uncertainties Rentong CHEN, Shaoping WANG, Chao ZHANG, Hongyan DUI, Yuwei ZHANG, Yadong ZHANG, Yang LI Chinese Journal of Aeronautics
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.