RESEARCH PAPER
Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model
1
Military University of Technology ul. Kaliskiego 2, 01-476, Warsaw, Poland
2
Motor Transport Institute, ul. Jagiellońska 80, 03-301, Warsaw, Poland
3
University of Defence, Kounicova 65, 662 10 Brno, Czech Republic
Publication date: 2019-12-31
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2019;21(4):662-669
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
The vehicle exploitation system, consisting of statistically identical objects that perform intervention tasks, not subject to systematic changes, can be modelled as a stationary stochastic process. Such a model allows to determine the probabilistic indicators
of current and boundary readiness of the system. This article presents the use of the semi-Markov process, based on three operating states: operation, ready-to-be-used and repair, to study a transport system consisting of special vehicles. On the example of
a sample consisting of police patrol cars, experimental studies of the intensity of fleet utilization, time of failure-free operation of
vehicles were carried out, and it was demonstrated that the examined transport system is characterized by a satisfactory, stationary readiness coefficient. The developmental possibilities of the presented modelling method were emphasized.
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