The objective of this research is to present a model to predict failure of two categories of critical aircraft engine components; nonrotating components such as valves and gearboxes, and rotating components such as engine turbines. The work utilizes Weibull
regression and artificial neural networks employing Back Propagation (BP) as well as Radial Basis Functions (RBF). The model
utilizes training failure data collected from operators of turboprop aircraft working in harsh desert conditions, where sand erosion
is a detrimental factor in reducing turbine life. Accordingly, the model is more suited for accurate prediction of life of critical components of such engines. The algorithm, which uses Radial Basis Function (RBF) NN, uses a closest point specifier. The activation
is based on the deviation of the earlier prototype from the input vector. Two earlier models are used for comparison purposes;
namely Weibull regression modeling and Feed-Forward BP network. Comparison results show that the failure times represented
by RBF are in better compromise with actual failure data than both earlier modeling methods. Moreover, the technique has comparatively higher efficiency as the neuron’s number in each layer of ANN is reduced, to decrease computation time, with minimum
effect on the accuracy of results.
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