Machining accuracy reliability as a key index of CNC machine tools is seriously influenced by the geometric and thermal errors. In the paper, a spindle unit thermal error modeling and machining accuracy reliability analysis method is proposed. By analyzing the heat generation mechanism, a thermal error model was developed to describe the thermal deformation of the electric spindle. Based on the immune algorithm (IA), the heat generation power and the heat transfer coefficient were optimized, and the thermal error was obtained by finite element thermal-mechanical coupling. By adopting the multi-body system theory (MBS), a dynamic machining accuracy model was put forward including the geometric and thermal errors. Based on the Latin hypercube sampling Monte Carlo method (LHSMC), a machining accuracy reliability analysis method was proposed to characterize the machining accuracy reliability considering the geometric and thermal errors. The method was employed to a machine tool, and the experimental results indicate the verification and superiority of the method.
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