RESEARCH PAPER
Exponential Dispersion accelerated degradation modelling and reliability assessment considering initial value and processes heterogeneity
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1
School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, China
2
Institute of Science and Technology Innovation, Civil Aviation University of China, China
3
Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Aircraft Airworthiness Certification Technology, Civil Aviation University of China, China
Submission date: 2024-03-12
Final revision date: 2024-05-13
Acceptance date: 2024-07-20
Online publication date: 2024-07-22
Publication date: 2024-07-22
Corresponding author
Peng Wang
Institute of Science and Technology Innovation, Civil Aviation University of China, China
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2024;26(4):191432
HIGHLIGHTS
- A TED degradation process considering the random initial values and stochastic effects of degradation rate is proposed.
- The accelerated degradation model that considers the heterogeneity of trajectories subject to stress levels is developed.
- Combining the MLE and the improved stochastic EM algorithm to complete the parameters estimation.
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ABSTRACT
In the production and operation, inherent variability and uncertainty necessitate addressing unit-to-unit heterogeneity in initial performance values and degradation processes. This article presents a bi-stochastic exponential dispersion process (BS-ED) designed to account for heterogeneity in both initial performance values and degradation processes. First, based on the ED process, the time and acceleration covariates are introduced to form a nonlinear accelerated ED process, and a random effect coefficient associated with the accelerated stress is incorporated to consider the heterogeneity of the process. Meanwhile, through the modelling of degradation time-shift, a degradation model considering the stochastic initial value of the product performance is developed. To effectively conduct the statistic inference of the BS-ED process, an improved stochastic EM algorithm is proposed, and the information matrix and Ito calculus are combined to estimate the confidence intervals. Finally, the stability of the method is verified by simulation and analyzed by two real cases.