Search for Author, Title, Keyword
RESEARCH PAPER
Influence of meteorological conditions on road accidents. A model Indexed by: for observations with excess zeros
,
 
 
 
More details
Hide details
1
Military University of Technology, Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, ul. gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 00 – 908 Warsaw, Poland
 
2
Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland
 
 
Publication date: 2021-09-30
 
 
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2021;23(3):586-592
 
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Determining the influence of meteorological conditions on the number of accidents.
  • More accurate analysis of accidents by limiting the area (territory).
  • Solving the problem of excess zero observations in the accident data set.
  • Applying Negative Binomial Hurdle Model in the research on road accidents.
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Road accidents are one of the basic road safety determinants. Most research covers large territorial areas. The results of such research do not take into account the differences between individual regions, which often leads to incorrect results and their interpretation. What makes it difficult to conduct analyses in a narrow territorial area is the small number of observations. The narrowing of the research area means that the number of accidents in time units is often very low. There are many zero observations in the data sets, which may affect the reliability of the research results. Such data are usually aggregated, which leads to information loss. The authors have therefore applied a model that addresses such problems. They proposed a method that does not require data aggregation and allows for the analysis of sets with an excess of zero observations. The presented model can be implemented in different territorial areas.
 
REFERENCES (31)
1.
Aga MA, Woldeamanuel BT, Tadesse M. Statistical modeling of number of human deaths per road traffic accident in Oromia region, Ethiopia. PLoS one 2020; 16(5) e0251492, https://doi.org/10.1371/journa....
 
2.
Al-Balbissi AH. Role of gender in road accidents. Traffic Injury Prevention 2003; 4(1): 64-73, https://doi.org/10.1080/153895...:.
 
3.
Ansari S, Akhdar F, Mandoorah M, Moutaery K. Causes and effects of road traffic accidents in Saudi Arabia. Public health 2000; 114(1): 37-39, https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.ph.....
 
4.
Ashraf I, Hur S, Shafiq M. Park Y. Catastrophic factors involved in road accidents: Underlying causes and descriptive analysis. PLoS one 2019; 14(10), e0223473, https://doi.org/10.1371/journa....
 
5.
Borucka A, Kozłowski E, Oleszczuk P, Świderski A. Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland. Open Engineering 2020; 11(1): 142-150, https://doi.org/10.1515/eng-20....
 
6.
Edwards JB. The temporal distribution of road accidents in adverse weather. Meteorological Applications: A Journal of Forecasting, Practical Applications, Training Techniques and Modelling 1999; 6(1): 59-68, https://doi.org/10.1017/S13504....
 
7.
Elvik R, Mysen A. Incomplete accident reporting: meta-analysis of studies made in 13 countries. Transportation Research Record 1999; 1665(1), 133-140, https://doi.org/10.3141/1665-1....
 
8.
Frej D, Ludwinek K. Analysis of road accidents in 2002-2019 on the example of Poland. The Archives of Automotive Engineering - Archiwum Motoryzacji 2020; 89(3): 5-18.
 
9.
Golias J, Yannis G. Dealing with lack of exposure data in road accident analysis. In 12th 557 International Conference: Traffic Safety on Three Continents 2001, September; 558.
 
10.
Guzek M, Lozia Z. Computing Methods in the Analysis of Road Accident Reconstruction Uncertainty. Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering 2020; 28: 2459-2476, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831....
 
11.
Jacyna M, Merkisz J. Proecological approach to modelling traffic organization in national transport system. Archives of Transport 2014; 30(2): 31-41, https://doi.org/10.5604/086695....
 
12.
Jamroz K, Budzyński M, Romanowska A, Żukowska J, Oskarbski J, Kustra W. Experiences and challenges in fatality reduction on polish roads. Sustainability 2019; 11(4): 959, https://doi.org/10.3390/su1104....
 
13.
Kasin JA, Papastathopoulos I. A spatial Poisson hurdle model with application to wildfires. arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.00137, 2020.
 
14.
Kozłowski E, Mazurkiewicz D, Żabiński T, Prucnal S, Sęp J. Machining sensor data management for operation-level predictive model. Expert Systems with Applications 2020; 159, 113600, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa....
 
15.
Lukusa MT, Phoa FKH. A Horvitz-type estimation on incomplete traffic accident data analyzed via a zero-inflated Poisson model. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2020; 134, 105235, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.....
 
16.
Martin JL, Gadegbeku B, Wu D, Viallon V, Laumon B. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents. PLoS one 2017; 12(11), e0187320, https://doi.org/10.1371/journa....
 
17.
Mitkow S, Świderski A. Regression Model In Road Transport Services. Business Logistics in Modern Management 2019; 19: 263-275.
 
18.
Pourhassan MR, Raissi S, Hafezalkotob A. A simulation approach on reliability assessment of complex system subject to stochastic degradation and random shock. Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability 2020; 22 (2): 370-379, https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
 
19.
Pyza D, Jachimowski R. Modelling of Parcels' Transport System. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference Transport Means 2015; 22-23.
 
20.
Pyza D, Jacyna-Gołda I, Gołda P, Gołebiowski P. Alternative Fuels and Their Impact on Reducing Pollution of the Natural Environment. Annual Set The Environment Protection 2018; 20: 819-836.
 
21.
Rolison JJ, Regev S, Moutari S, Feeney A. What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers' opinions, and road accident records. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2018; 115: 11-24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.....
 
22.
Sagberg F. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep. Accident Analysis & Prevention 1999; 31(6): 639-649, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-....
 
23.
Singh SK. Road traffic accidents in India: issues and challenges. Transportation Research Procedia 2017; 25: 4708-4719, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpr....
 
24.
Świderski A, Borucka A, Skoczyński P. Characteristics and Assessment of the Road Safety Level in Poland with Multiple Regression Model, Transport Means - Proceedings of the International Conference 2018; Part I : 92-97.
 
25.
Świderski A. Decision-Making Problems in the Standardization and Certification of Transport Services, Wydawnictwa Komunikacji i Łączności, 2019.
 
26.
Świderski A. Modeling of transport processes in terms of seasonality of transport. Scientific Journal of Polish Naval Academy 2019; 216(1):103-116, https://doi.org/10.2478/sjpna-....
 
27.
Taylor MC, Lynam DA, Baruya A. The effects of drivers' speed on the frequency of road accidents. Crowthorne: Transport Research Laboratory, 2000.
 
28.
Trépanier M, Leroux MH, de Marcellis-Warin N. Cross-analysis of hazmat road accidents using multiple databases. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2009; 41(6): 1192-1198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.....
 
29.
Wang C, Quddus MA, Ison SG. Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2009; 41(4): 798-808, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.....
 
30.
Zhang X, Yi N. Fast zero-inflated negative binomial mixed modeling approach for analyzing longitudinal metagenomics data. Bioinformatics 2020; 36(8): 2345-2351, https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinf....
 
31.
Zuur AF. Zero inflated models and generalized linear mixed models with R, 2012: 574.50182 Z8.
 
 
CITATIONS (12):
1.
An Analysis Of Factors Affecting The Number Of Safety Incidents In Civil Aviation
Patrycja Guzanek, Anna Borucka
Safety & Defense
 
2.
Analysis of the Structure of Driver Maneuvers in Different Road Conditions
Rafał Jurecki, Tomasz Stańczyk, Mateusz Ziubiński
Energies
 
3.
Method for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Electrical Circuit Protection with Miniature Fuse-Links
Jarosław Łukasiak, Michał Wiśnios, Adam Rosiński
Energies
 
4.
Forecasting the number of vehicle kilometers by applying the autoregression model, using Warsaw trams as an example
Małgorzata Grzelak, Grzegorz Wiejak, Andrzej Świderski
WUT Journal of Transportation Engineering
 
5.
The Influence of Varying Atmospheric and Space Weather Conditions on the Accuracy of Position Determination
Maciej Nowakowski, Ewa Dudek, Adam Rosiński
Sensors
 
6.
Modeling the dynamics of changes in CO2 emissions from Polish road transport in the context of COVID-19 and decarbonization requirements
Anna Borucka, Edward Kozłowski
Combustion Engines
 
7.
Data Mining of the Causes and Types of Road Accidents Under the Influence of Wind Speed and Climatic Conditions in Iran
Mahshid Eltemasi, hassan Behtooiy
 
8.
Data Mining of the Causes and Types of Road Accidents Under the Influence of Wind Speed and Climatic Conditions in Iran
Mahshid Eltemasi, hassan Behtooiy
 
9.
Advances in Manufacturing IV
Patrycja Guzanek, Piotr Bawoł, Grzegorz Sobecki
 
10.
Identifying Characteristic Fire Properties with Stationary and Non-Stationary Fire Alarm Systems
Michał Wiśnios, Sebastian Tatko, Michał Mazur, Jacek Paś, Jarosław Mateusz Łukasiak, Tomasz Klimczak
Sensors
 
11.
Transport in the tourist services sector in Poland during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
Sebastian Sobczuk
WUT Journal of Transportation Engineering
 
12.
Examining the Relationship between Wind Speed, Climatic Conditions, and Road Accidents in Iran
Mahshid Eltemasi, Hassan Behtooiey
Heliyon
 
eISSN:2956-3860
ISSN:1507-2711
Journals System - logo
Scroll to top