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Forecasting study of mains reliability based on sparse field data and perspective state space models
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Department of Combat and Special Vehicles University of Defence Kounicova str. 65, 662-10 Brno, Czech Republic Faculty of Transport and Computer Science, University of Economics and Innovation, Projektowa 4, 20-209 Lublin, Poland
Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis Mendel University in Brno Zemědělská 1, 61300 Brno, Czech Republic
Department of Combat and Special Vehicles University of Defence Kounicova str. 65, 662-10 Brno, Czech Republic
Publication date: 2020-06-30
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability 2020;22(2):179–191
The elements of critical infrastructure have to meet demanding dependability, safety and security requirements. The article deals with the prognosis of water mains reliability while using sparse irregular filed data. The data are sparse because the only thing we know is the number of mains failures during a given month. Since it is possible to transform the data into a typical reliability measure (rate of failure occurrence – ROCOF), we can examine the course of this measure development in time. In order to model and predict the ROCOF development, we suggest novel single and multiple error state space models. The results can be used for i) optimizing mains operation and maintenance, ii) estimating life cycle cost, and iii) planning crisis management.
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