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RESEARCH PAPER
Bayesian network approach for dynamic fault tree with common cause failures and interval uncertainty parameters
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School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China, China
 
2
National Key Laboratory of Aircraft Configuration Design, Xi’an 710072, China
 
 
Submission date: 2024-02-12
 
 
Final revision date: 2024-04-13
 
 
Acceptance date: 2024-06-23
 
 
Online publication date: 2024-07-13
 
 
Publication date: 2024-07-13
 
 
Corresponding author
Shufang Song   

School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China, China
 
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Combine BWM and HFS to avoid the influence of expert subjectivity in β-factor model.
  • The interval theory is introduced to deal with the uncertainty parameters.
  • A framework for reliability evaluation of dynamic fault tree with CCF based on CTBN is proposed.
  • The calculation time of proposed method is shorter than that of DTBN-based method.
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ABSTRACT
Traditional fault tree analysis often assumes that the basic events are independent and the failure parameters are known. Therefore, it is powerless to deal with the correlation among basic events and the uncertainty of failure parameters due to the small failure data. Therefore, a framework based on continuous-time Bayesian network is proposed to evaluate the reliability of fault tree with common cause failures (CCF) and uncertainty parameters. Firstly, the best-worst method (BWM) and hesitant fuzzy set (HFS) are introduced to address the issue of β-factor being influenced by experts’ subjectivity. Then, the interval theory is introduced to deal with the uncertainty parameters. Based on continuous-time Bayesian network, the conditional probability functions of logic gates (i.e. AND gate, OR gate, spare gate, priority AND gate) with CCF are derived, and the upper and lower bounds of failure probability of top event can be solved. Finally, the fault tree of CPU system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 12272316) and the Foundation of National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerodynamic Design and Research (No. 61422010101).
eISSN:2956-3860
ISSN:1507-2711
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